Ruminations, July 12, 2009

Could Bush’s foreign policy have been right?

All presidents get some things right and some things wrong. Some presidents get some of the real big issues right and we remember them for those issues. We remember Washington for establishing the republic. We remember Lincoln for ending slavery. We remember Franklin Roosevelt for winning World War II and Truman for his handling of the Cold War. And we remember Lyndon Johnson for civil rights and Ronald Reagan for defeating communism. Sometimes presidents’ accomplishments come after their presidency; World War II did not end until after Roosevelt had died and the Soviet Union was still in business when Reagan left office.

In looking at President George W. Bush’s Mideast policy, has he accomplished anything constructive? Even today, some six months after he left office, his accomplishments look more than a little iffy. In evaluating his term, emphasis is often placed on Iraq’s lack of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) arsenal and the difficulty in securing that nation. We look at his belligerency toward Iran. We look at his stubbornness in keeping troops in Iraq and continuing that battle. A lot of smart folks think that he has been a failure. Has he? Maybe we need to step back and take another look.

Prior to 9/11:

• In Iraq, Saddam Hussein posed a threat to the region and the world. Saddam had working relationships with terrorist groups including Abu Nidal’s Fatah organization, Palestine Liberation Front, Egypt’s Islamic Jihad Organization and al-Qaida (not in the 9/11 attacks but he did meet with them and however distrustful, there was, according to the Institute for Defense Analyses, November 2007 report, a “’de facto’ link”). He provided bounties of $25,000 to the families of suicide bombers in Israel and had the means and ability to reinvigorate his WMD program in short order and had used his oil to amass a small fortune in the Oil-For-Food scam. He had destabilized the region by fomenting two wars and threatening more and attempted the assassination of a former American president. He had even begun a program of stockpiling explosives in Iraqi embassies. There is no doubt that he was a danger to the Mideast and to the rest of the world.

• In Libya, leader Mu‘ammar al-Qaḏḏāfī had been on the United State’s sponsored terrorism list for good reason. Libyan terrorists were responsible for the bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, and the death of 270 people. The U.S. had foiled an attempted attack on a U.S. embassy in 1986 and a mortar attack on a British airbase. Libya had begun a WMD program; they had begun to stockpile chemical weapons and had purchased centrifuges for the creation of nuclear weapons.

• In Iran, after the 1979 revolution, the revolutionaries invaded the U.S. Embassy and held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days. Iran established a theocracy that has threatened Israel with annihilation, sponsored terrorism in Lebanon and Iraq. Internally, people were arrested and executed for amorphous crimes such as "sowing corruption on earth," "crimes against the people," and "crimes against the Revolution." Iran sponsors terrorist organization Hezbollah as well as terrorists in Iraq and worked against stability in that nation.

• In Pakistan, Osama bin Laden had funded a “guest house” in Peshawar which became home to Ramzi Yousef, the architect of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. Pakistan was more concerned about India than they were about the Taliban. They were deeply suspicious of us when we imposed sanctions on both them and India after their nuclear tests. And, the Northern Alliance had been supported by India and Russia – Pakistan’s two enemies — and now the United States wanted to support the Northern Alliance. Pakistan was in no way an ally.

Post 9/11:

• Iraq has become a democracy with good relations toward the United States. There are still a lot of problems but it no longer sponsors terrorism, has no WMD program or plans to create one, is not a threat to its neighbors, is not assassinating foreign leaders and is no longer stockpiling explosives in its embassies.

• In Libya, Qaḏḏāfī, fearing that Libya might be next on the invasion list, contacted the United States and offered to end his WMD program. After negotiations, international inspectors were sent in and the program was dismantled. Libya has normalized relations with European Union, fully restored diplomatic relations with the United States and is fully cooperating in the fight against terrorism.

• In Iran, many of the 1979 revolutionaries were opting for a change in the previous government and had not wanted a theocracy but they were stuck with it. As the U.S. prepared for the Iraq invasion, in November 2002 there was a student revolt against the Iranian government and another one in 2003. In the ensuing years, as our efforts in Iraq looked tenuous, Iranian theocrats seemed to firm their control. Then, in the aftermath of the successful American surge in Iraq, many Iranians who had gone on religious pilgrimages to Iraq and have been able to see first-hand, the making of a democratic republic. Iranian leaders also noticed the establishment of a democracy and didn’t like it; they worked hard to interfere with the establishment of Iraq’s democracy. This conflict in perspectives has contributed to the 2009 riots following the election. There is now a split among the ruling clerics and this split may be permanent.

• In Pakistan, it would have been impossible to assault the Taliban without the cooperation of Pakistan. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage explained the situation to President (2001-2008) Pervez Musharraf, who then provided key assistance in our efforts to combat al-Qaida and their Taliban protectors in Afghanistan. Former CIA Director George Tenet said that, “I’ve always considered Musharraf’s reversal [from belligerent toward the U.S. to an ally] to be the most important post-9/11 strategic development after the takedown of the Afghan sanctuary itself.”

It is quite possible that establishing a democracy in Iraq will lead to democracies in Libya and Iran. It is possible that Pakistan and Afghanistan will stabilize. Should that happen, it is within the realm of possibility that more Mideast nations will gravitate toward democracy – not overnight but it just might happen. If it does, then history will judge George W. Bush as being right about the invasion of Iraq and about the Mideast – it could be.

Sarah’s razor

Occam was a 14^th century monk who developed a theory known as Occam’s Razor. Essentially, the theory in its variations states that, all things being equal, given two or more competing explanations for an action, the simpler, more straightforward or stated explanation is probably the best one.

Many have sought deeper meaning to Sarah Palin’s recent resignation as Governor of Alaska. Some have speculated that she thinks this will help her for a presidential run in 2012. Some have speculated that she thinks this will help her fight off some unspecified impending scandal. Some have speculated at what she thinks her resignation means to the Republican Party.

Maybe it would be better if we just considered what she said in her July 3 resignation press conference (for the full transcript, go here: http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2009/07/sarah_palin_resigns_july_3_200.html):

:

• “I've been accused of all sorts of frivolous ethics violations, such as holding a fish in a photograph or wearing a jacket with a logo on it and answering reporter's questions. Every one of these, though, all 15 of the ethics complaints have been dismissed.” (Note that these investigations cost Alaska taxpayers $2 million and cost the Palins, personally, $500,000.)
• “My staff and I spend most of our day… dealing with this stuff.”
• “Life is too short to compromise time and resources.”
• “[G]overnors … as lame ducks… travel around their state and travel to other states, maybe take their overseas international trade missions. …Many just accept that lame-duck status, and they hit the road, they draw a paycheck, they kind of milk it.”
• Palin’s “kids …recently seeing their baby brother Trig mocked and ridiculed by some pretty mean-spirited adults.”

Maybe 14^th century monks like Occam had better insight into human motivations than 21^st century media speculators. Maybe the simplest explanation for her resignation is just what she said. Palin stated her reasons and resigned; that’s good enough for me.

The Senate finishes all business by July recess

It’s time to celebrate, folks. Judging by Congress’s behavior, the economic hard times are behind us. Healthcare has been solved. Qualified Supreme Court judges have been named and approved. Labor, agriculture, fiscal, trade and energy problems are all taken care of. Even those long, 1,500 page-bills and amendments have all been read and understood.

No, folks, there is nothing left for Congress to do. So Congress is looking for something and has decided that the most pressing need today is determining a collegiate football champion. In the July 6 edition of Sports Illustrated, Senator Orrin Hatch (R, UT) wrote, "I believe the case for government involvement [in the Bowl Championship Series] … is compelling."

Hatch and Senator Bob Bennett (R, UT), sent a letter to BCS management and said, “it is our hope that this situation can be resolved with a minimum of government involvement. That being said, the revenues generated by the BCS are unprecedented, making its impact on interstate commerce undeniable. In addition, there may be legitimate legal questions regarding what appear to be coordinated exclusionary tactics by the originators of the BCS. These tactics appear to be having a negative and inequitable impact on a number of our nation’s colleges and universities.”

The House Energy and Commerce committee (Energy and Commerce?) has already held hearings on the BCS and the Senate Antitrust Subcommittee is scheduled to hold hearings on the BCS later this month. It’s nice to know all the pressing business on the nation has been resolved and Congress’s desks are clear of all the arcane government minutiae and they can now take on football.

Keep your eye on the donut and not on the hole

The Tim Horton’s chain sells a lot of donuts. The company, which last year had operating income of $500 million, operates in primarily in Canada and the U.S. and is incorporated in Delaware.

Now that incorporation site is going to change. Horton’s management feels that the tax structure Canada is more hospitable than that in the United States and is therefore moving Tim Hortons corporate office to Canada.

Hmmm. Canada is a better place to do business than United States? That’s new.

Quote without comment

The following is from a July 5 letter to the editor of the Washington Post by Martha Gillis: “My nephew, Brian Bradshaw, was killed by an explosive device in Afghanistan on June 25, the same day that Michael Jackson died. Mr. Jackson received days of wall-to-wall coverage in the media. Where was the coverage of my nephew or the other soldiers who died that week? ...He had old-fashioned values and believed that military service was patriotic and that actions counted more than talk. …He was a search-and-rescue volunteer, an altar boy, a camp counselor. He carried the hopes and dreams of his parents willingly on his shoulders. What more than that did Michael Jackson do or represent that earned him memorial "shrines," while this soldier's death goes unheralded?”

It makes me want to scream.”

Robert J. Kulak

West Hartford, Connecticut