Ruminations May 23, 2010

Mexico is a failed state

Felipe Calderon, President of Mexico, is presiding over a failed state and he knows it. He neither has the political power nor the strategy for saving his country, so he has chosen to delay the inevitable for as long as possible and hope that a miracle will happen.

Let’s look at some of Mexico’s problems.

Income distribution. The economic and constitutional infrastructure of Mexico leads to gross income disparities. In fact, the Forbes’ richest-people-in-the-world list is led by Mexican Carlos Slim Helu and includes 8 other Mexican billionaires. Mexico is a country of great natural resources and wealth with a gross domestic product of over a trillion dollars. But it is also a country of great poverty. Some estimates say that 40 percent of Mexicans live below the poverty line. Remember that the poverty line in Mexico is considerably below the poverty line in the United States; were it not, poor Mexicans would not make the investment or risk their lives to come to the United States.

By encouraging their poor to illegally migrate to the United States, Mexico can substantially reduce their unemployment problem. Mexico has a workforce, according to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, of some 45 million and an unemployment/underemployment rate of over 32 percent. Imagine how that unemployment/underemployment rate would swell if all the Mexicans who are in the United States illegally were to return home. (Mexico’s population is growing at a rate such that it must create one million jobs per year just to stay even, and that’s not happening.) Also consider the effect on the Mexican economy if the $23 billion annual remittances illegals send home to Mexico from the United States were to stop. (The $23 billion is a 2006 figure, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank. The Bank also estimates that the remittances are increasing at a rate of 15.6 percent annually).

The top 40 percent of Mexican income earners account for almost 70 percent of all income, leaving 30 percent to the bottom of the pyramid or (0.30 X $208 billion in income) $62 billion. One can reasonably assume that those at the upper levels of the economy do not require family members to enter the United States illegally and send home remittances and we can therefore further assume that virtually all remittances are for those at the bottom. This means that almost 40 percent of income for over 60 million people comes from the United States. So, if Mexico loses the remittances that illegals send home and it doesn’t have an alternative plan, it could be ripe for starvation or revolution.

Drug trade. According to the U.S. Justice Department, over $17 billion in drugs crosses the Mexican-U.S. border annually. While this money is not taxed, it does make its way into the Mexican economy in the form of wages, bribes and the purchase of goods. In the recent past, this may have been look-the-other-way acceptable but, with the recent violence spilling over into pitched battles between the drug gangs and the Mexican military (almost 23,000 killed since Calderon took office in 2006) and now and now spilling into the United States, it’s no longer acceptable. Indeed, Mexican drug cartels are beginning to resemble shadow governments and threaten the existence of the Mexican government in certain areas.

The violence is now negatively affecting other sectors of the economy. It is reported that some foreign companies are considering leaving Mexico because of kidnappings (1,200 in 2009), extortion and protection payoffs.

Al Qaeda and its allies. A porous border provides the opportunity for al Qaeda and their allies to enter the United States. Now Mexico seems to be having trouble with illegals sneaking across its border – not from the United States but from Guatemala. Many of these illegals are hoping to make the trek across Mexico to get into the United States.

In a detention facility that Mexico has set up, it is detaining illegals from more than 60 countries. This represents a huge problem for Mexico. It cannot simply send those folks back to Guatemala because they are not all Guatemalans and Guatemala does want these foreigners. It is a hassle for Mexico to send them back to their country of origin because many are from Asia and Africa and, aside from logistics, cooperation from other countries is not always forthcoming. The easiest way to get rid of these unwanted guests is to – you guessed it – let them sneak into the United States. (Note that three members of a would-be attack team that had targeted a marine barracks in the U.S. were from Lebanon and had entered the United States illegally via the Mexican border.)

With the breakdown in Mexico’s ability to provide adequate police protection, this provides al Qaeda with the opportunity to operate cells out of Mexico. And given al Qaeda’s connection with the heroin trade in Afghanistan they could forge attractive (for them) working relationships with the Mexican drug cartels. And that represents a threat not only to the United States but to Mexico as well.

Conclusion. Calderon’s only solution at this point is more of the same. The longer he can get the United States to prop up the Mexican economy by a continuation of its look-the-other-way immigration policy, the better for Mexico. The problem for Mexico is that Americans in general don’t want to look the other way any longer and will no longer stand for more of the same policies.

A change to U.S. policy regarding the establishment of stronger border control and removing illegal immigrants without a Mexican plan to absorb these returnees could make Mexico ripe for the political passions of a Hugo Chavez or a Raul Castro – both of whom would provide Mexico and the United States with a new set of problems – possibly far worse than those that exist today.

President Obama needs to play to both Mexicans and Americans. So far, he has shown little initiative in handling either. But, he knows the problems, their political implications and his party has a majority in Congress to carry out his solution. All he needs is a solution.

Stealing valor

When an American male reaches the age of 12 or 13, he generally gives up on the idea of playing imaginary heroic soldiers and begins other adolescent pursuits. Some, a few years later, will actually go on to become real soldiers and will make sacrifices for their country and their fellow citizens.

But there are others who continue to play at being heroic soldiers perhaps because they believe that by playing soldier they can fool others into believing their imaginary heroic exploits and that may result in career enhancement. Still, others who pretend to be war heroes may be mentally unbalanced and still others, who for some inexplicable reason, continue to take credit for their fictitious military heroics.

Consider the case of Army veteran and historian Joseph Ellis (Ph.D., Yale). A professor of history at Mt. Holyoke College, he authored books that have won the Pulitzer and National Book Awards. He had it made.

Ellis claimed that he was a decorated war hero, served as a paratrooper with the 101^st Airborne in Vietnam, and had been on General William Westmoreland’s staff. Except for the fact that he is a veteran, the rest is all fabrication. Ellis never set foot in Vietnam, was not a paratrooper, was not with the 101^st Airborne, was not a decorated war hero and did not serve on Westmoreland’s staff.

Why did Ellis make this stuff up? Maybe it gave him street-cred at a liberal northeast college to say that he was a Vietnam veteran who turned against the war. Who knows?

But Ellis is not the only veteran to assume the persona of a hero. The Department of Defense (DOD) says that there are 21 surviving prisoner of war (POW) veterans of the Persian Gulf War; the Veterans Administration (VA) is paying benefits to 286. The DOD reports that there have been 661 POWs who have returned from the Vietnam War (approximately 100 have since passed away) and yet the VA is paying POW disability payments to 966. Maybe there are bookkeeping errors. Maybe there are different classification rules for the DOD and the VA. Maybe it’s something else.

Then there are the Congressional Medal of Honor (CMOH) pretenders. The CMOH is generally presented to the honoree or his/her family by the President. There have been fewer than 3,500 recipients of the medal since its inception almost 150 years ago and there are some 91 living honorees. These medals are issued for actions above and beyond the call of duty. (To read come of the citations for these awards, go here: http:www.cmoh.org/.) There are some pretenders who claim to have won not just one but two CMOHs.

To remedy some of these situations, Congress passed the Stolen Valor Act of 2005 that makes it a federal crime to claim unearned military decorations or medals.

But there are still others who continue to steal valor like Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. Blumenthal, who never claimed military decorations or medals, did falsely claim to be a Vietnam veteran – not once, but several times.

As a Harvard undergraduate in the 1960s, Blumenthal applied for and received student deferments that postponed his draft date. At the time, there were essentially two reasons to apply for a 2S student deferment; one reason was to be able to complete one’s education before entering the military and the other reason was to delay, delay and delay – if one delayed long enough, the chances were good that one could avoid military service altogether (it was common knowledge that the probability of being drafted dropped dramatically after age 25).

When Blumenthal’s student deferments ran out, he managed to secure, through old school connections at Harvard, a job as a gofer at The Washington Post that came with a 2A deferment; the 2A deferment is for critical employment positions that were in “national health and safety interest” and allowed individuals in those critical positions to continuing serving America in civilian life. (How The Washington Post convinced Selective Service that the gofer position was critical to the national defense is beyond the scope of this article.) When Blumenthal’s deferments ran out, at age 24 he decided to enlist in the Marine Corps Reserve.

Last Monday, The New York Times reported that Blumenthal, on several occasions, fraudulently stated that he had served in Vietnam. Blumenthal had to respond but compounded matters by having the Connecticut Democratic Party surreptitiously rent a Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) hall in West Hartford for the backdrop for his defense (the locale implying that the VFW endorsed Blumenthal and his defense). This act outraged the VFW. According to the Connecticut VFW commander, Richard DiFrederico, the purpose for the VFW hall rental was not disclosed until hours before Blumenthal’s presentation. According to the VFW adjutant for Connecticut, Ronald Rosakiewicz, “there were no VFW members, there were no Vietnam veterans on that podium, on that stage with Mr. Blumenthal.” Some veterans, the VFW reported, are ripping up their VFW membership cards because they erroneously believed that the VFW had endorsed the Blumenthal presentation. The VFW feels that they were “duped” by Blumenthal and the Connecticut Democrats.

As we approach Memorial Day, we would do well not to remember the pretenders who play imaginary soldiers/heroes but to remember that there are many Americans who gave a part of their lives fighting for America in Vietnam and other places. Some Americans gave more than a part of their lives – a lot more. We honor those veterans. That’s why Joseph Ellis, Richard Blumenthal and others who have no compunction bout stealing valor should be held in contempt.

Quote without comment

Jonathan Turley, professor of law at George Washington University, commenting on the Stolen Valor Act: “In the end, true valor cannot be stolen. It can only be earned. What is left are pathetic pretenders.”

Rob Kulak